I've written some pieces on Splinterlands where I've explained exactly what's going on with the prices and it's always met with someone telling me its because crypto is down. Well, crypto has come way off its lows and has stabilized yet Splinterlands cards and DEC just keep falling.
While I'm not going to say crypto prices have no correlation with Splinterlands, the reason Splinterlands assets have come down has way more to do with its own economy and how its being managed than it does the price action of bitcoin.
Take a look at these two charts from the crypto lows on January 22. Bitcoin is up 45% from its low tick while DEC has gotten crushed almost 66%.
Card prices are currently dropping too.
Over the past few months I've put out a few positive posts on Splinterlands where I've called for higher prices in DEC and I've been wrong. But it's not random. It continues to be the changes and announcements the DEV team makes that keep sending it lower. They just can't seem to get out of their own way.
The most recent issues and announcements are that land isn't really coming any time soon. That started the decline but the real killer was the trifecta of announcements that the expansion pack would 10x Dice (confirmed SPS only too), Modern Format would have half the CP requirement as Wild Format, and the real killer, they are giving out equal rewards pools for each.
Think of it this way. Splinterlands is currently a giant bot farm. DEC and rewards cards are going straight from mint to market in a steady flow from these bot farms in a big enough torrent that even with the cards bot owners rent, they can still push the price down relentlessly. This constant downward movement in price convinces card owners to sell as well because why would you hold a depreciating asset?
Now let's imagine they double DEC rewards. The probably 350k bots simply split. 175k go to wild mode and 175k go to modern. This doubles their rewards immediately which just sends it even faster straight to the market without increasing their costs at all. I wouldn't be surprised if DEC drops to .0005.
There will be some new accounts though as whales will start to compete in both modes although they already own all the cards they need so this doesn't help the game. There will also be a few people who expand their bot farms while the price of Dec is still above .001 but that will just send it down even faster.
New players? Who's coming in when the price of DEC is .0005 and you get almost none of it per win?
Here's a quick DEC tokenomics review from recent announcements.
-There will be less use for DEC as the new packs are confirmed to be SPS only
-There is less use for DEC since Modern mode lowers the need to spend on rentals
-The supply will be doubling soon with no expectation of new players to absorb it
Where do we sign up to buy more of that coin??!
And cards?
-Even though you're drowning in new cards, they're going to open the flood gates yet again with both new rewards cards and Rift Watchers at a 10x Dice
-There's now far less need for old cards because half the games can't use them
-There's now far less need for new cards because CP requirements are cut in half
-They won't be absorbing any of the cards with land until long after they flood it with many many more.
What about SPS?
-The only use for SPS is one we took from DEC
-Thanks for coming to my SPS tedxtalk
But sure. It's because crypto is down or the game grew too fast or whatever. Nothing to do with the devs and their constant fierce and destructive attack on the value people are holding in the game already.
STOP ADDING SUPPLY WHEN YOU CAN'T ADD NEW PLAYERS
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