(For reference-this was the chart I posted 3 days ago making my case for an upward movement soonish)
So I posted this chart a few days ago. I showed the points that led me to believe we'd see a strong upward movement. I really thought it would come toward the end of April just because I thought the wedge would need to close a bit more but yesterday the devs came out with game changing (pun intended) news about the validators and they sparked it early.
I do need to put out a post about the validators but I'm in the middle of doing taxes and have no capacity to write it. It's every bit as huge as the devs have been saying it was going to be as far as I can tell at first glance and it might have just turned the whole economy around. I need more time to assess that before I'm ready to say it for certain though.
Anyway, let's take a look at what's happened since I posted that chart. Note that I've changed nothing. Time and price are just filling in the lines for me.
As you can see, we did get a strong up move. In fact, SPS ran 30% on a day that BTC was down which just proves that if the devs are doing the right things, Bitcoin's price doesn't have to crush Dec and SPS or any Splinterlands assets. It didn't crush any in Upland for instance. They've just kept attracting more money by the day.
So what's happened? Well We got that strong move. While I was off in my timing there was one more thing I got wrong and honestly I think it had to do with the timing also. I thought we would blast past that first red line and then come back down and use it as support. And instead we hit it as resistance.
The reason this was probably also a timing issue was because if we'd gotten two more weeks of bullish divergence, the move would have been stronger. It's like energy building up.
But what's impressive to me is how much that red line I drew on the chart a week ago meant to price yesterday.
Here's an hourly chart so you can see exactly what happened and what's happening now.
As you can see, price ran to that line and then fell right back down. It tried multiple times to get above it and stay above it but it couldn't close a single hourly candle above because RSI had just run too high and it had nothing left. That's an hourly RSI of 91 which is crazy. After trying two more times to get above it and stay above it, price dropped and gave RSI a break. Since then its formed this nice bull flag before it likely tries for a round two. I don't think its going to wait much longer. Three strong tests of the top this bull flag might be all it needs to try again.
Also, if we measure out this bull flag, the normal rule is you can expect about the same move out of the flag that got you in it. Basically it will usually match the flag pole height when it breaks out. You can see in this chart that it would bring us almost perfectly to the line I was looking at for the original move. We'll see though. It might need one more test to get that hourly RSO down a bit before it runs. Yay, charts!
As I look at this though there's one more thing favors a move very soon which is that it would bring price to about $0.16 and we've already seen the importance of that price. Take a look where my cursor is here and how there are perfect tags on that line from both the top and the bottom several times. You can see it acting as support and resistance in a volatile period. Price has memories and it likes to revisit them.
OK, back to taxes with me ugh. I just wanted to send out a quick update. As you can see, a simple buy at the divergence with a sell order in at that line would have netted a very quick 30% gain. Charts are lots of fun.
Not financial advice. Everything I said here is definitely fraud.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
