I try to follow the macro trends affecting humanity so that my stories and novels set in the future have a realistic background. Population growth and average life expectancy are among the macro trends. From the perspective of science fiction, these are highly productive issues; the rich generation of middle-aged people who rule the world are immortal, for example, is not a pleasant scenario. A world full of undead vampires may seem attractive in movies and novels, but such a scenario will probably be liked by very few people in the real world. Improving living conditions and advances in medicine have significantly increased average life expectancy. Many statistics I have studied show that life expectancy has recently extended between 0.2 and 0.25 years per year. Accordingly, we can say that the average life expectancy increases by one year every 4 to 5 years. According to historic trends, the average life expectancy in the world in 1800, 1900, and 2016 was 32, 55, and 72, respectively.
The fact that life expectancy is increasing brings to mind whether it is possible to stop or even reverse aging. My research shows that there is no consensus among scientists on this issue. The mainstream opinion is that preventing aging will not be possible soon. Life expectancy statistics also show that development in this issue is slow. Another group with a more optimistic view believes that exponential development in technology will eliminate aging in the next 50 years. Before I go into the discussion details, I want to focus on whether long life is desirable.
If one-day aging can be slowed down, stopped, or even reversed, what consequences can it have? It is concerned that such a development will increase the population, which could have devastating environmental consequences. Population growth has adverse effects, such as global warming and the shrinking habitats of other living species. As countries develop and women become more educated, the number of children per woman decreases. This applies to all developed countries and affects developing countries such as Turkey. For example, the average number of children owned in Turkey, which is on the world average from many statistics, has declined rapidly over the past 50 years. Educated people living in big cities have 1 or 2 children. In small towns and rural areas, cases where the number of children exceeds three can be considered exceptions. Accordingly, the rate of population growth has decreased over the years and continues to decline. In most developed countries, the population does not increase. In some countries, it reduces. Statistics show that in developing countries such as Turkey, population growth will approach zero in 2050.
Another effect of slowing or stopping aging will be a rapid increase in average age. Unfortunately, people are forced to spend the last period of their lives in hospital due to health problems. Although advances in medicine have increased average life expectancy, older people spend the last ten years of their lives battling diseases has not changed. People live a shoddy life in this last period of their lives and feel sad that they are a burden to society. Can this time be shortened when their life expectancy is even longer? I certainly hope so.
Longevity will also threaten pension systems, built with the prediction that people will live for 70 to 80 years. This threat is being addressed by raising the retirement age along with extended life expectancy. This has dramatically affected the way younger generations look at work. A new generation of employees, with the expectation that they will work for at least 35-40 years, rightly want to do jobs that they will love, take a lot of vacation. If scientists can one day stop aging, it won't have very bright consequences for young people. For example, middle-aged employees in corporate structures will not be promoted because they do not vacate positions. These days, the state of having a legacy in the 50s will also be deferred to an uncertain future.
Our greatest consolation in the face of inequalities in the world is that everyone will die one day, and at least in the face of death, everyone is equal. In an environment where aging has been stopped or reversed, those in power may want to rule the world forever. Another concern about preventing aging is that therapies on this issue will be a privilege accessible only to the very wealthy. In the beginning, it is not difficult to predict that this will be the case. On the other hand, as we have witnessed in other technological developments, we can expect that these therapies will become cheap over time so that large masses can begin to take advantage of this opportunity.
Stopping aging doesn't mean people will be immortal. Only deaths caused by diseases related to old age will disappear. Deaths caused by accidents, murders, and non-age-related conditions will continue. In such a scenario, death will become a much more dramatic event for those happy with their lives. We like to highlight the few advantages that old age brings to accept the aging process, which we see as an irrepressible phenomenon. These advantages include increased life experience and financial accumulation with age. However, we all know that youth is a preferred situation. From the age of 28, our mental and physical performance begins to decline. Our cognitive performance does not drop much until our mid-50s, but as we know from athletes, our physical performance decreases by about 10% every ten years from the age of 28.
Aging is defined as the accumulation of pathological conditions created by changes in metabolism over time. As age progresses, unwanted changes that accumulate become intolerable by the body, and functional disorders begin. We can compare this situation to minor errors that occur when we make a photocopy of the paper. As the next copy will occur over the document containing the error, errors will accumulate over time, and eventually, an image that does not resemble the original copy will appear. The diseases associated with old age are cancer, Alzheimer's, and bone resorption. Big money is being spent treating these diseases in developed countries, but the progress made is not at the desired pace.
I mentioned two different approaches to aging. The science of Gerontology deals with biological, social, and economic problems that arise in old age. This branch of science is trying to develop ways to help older people. Another school is working directly to extend life expectancy. These studies aim to use developments in medical gerontology so that problems related to old age do not occur at all. Life extension studies aim to keep people constantly young through tissue regeneration, stem cell treatments, molecular repair, gene therapy, and organ replacement.
One of the methods used on the subject is calorie restriction. In experiments on mice and bats, findings were obtained that calorie restriction prolongs life. It is unclear how the calorie restriction that certain food supplements will accompany will affect people. Growth hormone production in the body decreases with age progression. Growth hormone supplements have been shown to prolong life in animals. But it is not yet clear whether this supplement produces positive results in humans. Ray Kurzweil states that nanorobots sent to the body through the bloodstream in the future will be used in intracellular repair activities. It is believed that the nanorobots, which nanocomputers will manage, will serve to clean up the waste that forms inside and outside cells as a result of aging.
Stem cell research is carried out to reproduce cells, body parts, or the entire body. As a result of these studies, it is aimed to replace the aging organs with organs suitable for the tissue of the relevant body. These studies are controversial from an ethical point of view. In two clinics in California, it is claimed that young people's blood is transferred to older patients, resulting in long lives, dark hair, better memory, better sleep, and improvements in diabetes and Alzheimer's diseases. But the study results are not proven by a valid scientific publication. Of course, there are more straightforward solutions that extend life. One of these solutions is to dance. We all know the positive health effects of physical activity. According to a study published in the journal Frontiers in Human Neuroscience, dancing is more beneficial to the brain than other physical activities. Studies on subjects with an average age of 68 showed that a program in which different types of dance were learned each time was more beneficial to the brain than other physical activities.
It is a well-known fact that factors such as a balanced diet of vegetables, fruits, and positive social relationships also help us live longer. I suppose that every person who does not have huge problems will desire a longer life. On the other hand, it seems more important for a person to be healthy and peaceful as long as she/he lives than for the duration of her/his life.
Image Sources:
https://pixabay.com and https://giphy.com/
Information Sources:
Aubrey de Gray Book: Ending Aging(2007)
Ray Kurzweil Books: Fantastic Voyage(2004) and Transcend(2009)
Youtube Videos: Cure Aging? and End Aging?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_extension
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity